Some bold predictions for 2012
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01/02/2012 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The turn of the calendar brings so much promise.
New Year's resolutions are made and two weeks later, gyms will be back to normal attendance rates. Cigarette sales will return to averages and people will abandon any notions of improvement.
Is it cynical? Of course, but statistics bear out the positions. Personal experience accounts for some of those beliefs as well, but January is also a time for fearless predictions of the year to come.
So here are some thoughts on what we might see for 2012.
- Tiger Woods will win again, but not a major championship.
His victory at the Chevron World Challenge was something, but not a firm indicator he is back. If we take Woods at his word that injuries more than anything accounted for a down 2011, then he should have a productive 2012.
Woods will be two full years removed from the scandal and the more time that passes on that front, the better. He got that winning taste back in his mouth and that could lead to the old feelings.
No matter what, it's naive to think Woods would never win on tour again after the car accident. Why not 2012? He's indicated he will play at least one event he normally didn't, so it seems he's at least mildly interested in teeing it up more often.
- Yani Tseng makes a serious push for the single-season Grand Slam.
She is so clearly the best player in the world and dominance has run rampant on the LPGA Tour since 2000. First, Annika was unbeatable, then it was Lorena, and now it's Yani.
Both Sorenstam and Ochoa failed to threaten that single-season Slam, but if you can believe this, neither was as good a closer in majors as is Tseng already.
She only needs the Women's British Open for the career slam, and, she'll be 23 in mid-January. Tseng should still be carded in a state store, but she's so far ahead of the pace of her contemporaries, it's comical.
Tseng won two majors in 2011, but probably should've had a third. She didn't contend at the U.S. Women's Open. The chance at immortality could be too much to overcome, but Tseng's competition isn't as strong as Annika's or Lorena's. Cristie Kerr, Jiyai Shin and Ai Miyazato all regressed to some degree in 2011.
- The U.S. wins the Ryder Cup, then David Toms and Paul McGinley get the 2014 captaincies.
- The PGA Tour explores ways to get the season-opener out of Hawaii because attendance at the Hyundai Tournament of Champions is worse than Senior Cut Day. (It won't work.)
- No one gets suspended for failing a drug test.
- Jason Kokrak is your next PGA Tour star from the Nationwide Tour.
- Lexi Thompson struggles as a member of the LPGA Tour. Remember, she can't vote yet, so a full season of pressure like that will wear on her.
- The FedExCup playoffs will be better thanks to the additions of Bethpage and Crooked Stick to the rotation.
- The No. 1 player at the end of 2012 will be Lee Westwood, who wins the British Open.
- Pace of play in young golfers doesn't improve and my health is jeopardized becoming angry about it.
- Fred Couples dominates the Champions Tour without having to worry about the Presidents Cup captaincy. As a bonus prediction, Couples' name gets kicked around for '14 Ryder Cup gig, but he's dubbed "too old."
- He and Nick Price are the 2013 Presidents Cup captains.
- Phil Mickelson gets twitter and bores us to death with it.
- Rory McIlroy struggles a bit in 2012 after enormous expectations and celebrity status.
- People continue to complain about long putters, but nothing happens because they are completely legal and that will never change.
- Major winners - Masters (Adam Scott), U.S. Open at Olympic (Steve Stricker), British Open Championship at Royal Lytham & St. Annes (Westwood) and PGA Championship at Kiawah Island (Alvaro Quiros).
For now, the crystal ball gets put away with the Christmas ornaments.
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Betting Football
NFL Football Betting OnlineIs there such a thing as a trap game in the NFL?
I once asked that question to Pete Korner, who at the time was office manager and a senior linesmaker for Las Vegas Sports Consultants.
Korner almost ripped my head off. There is no such thing as a trap game, he loudly berated me. It’s a myth. The numbers are made using power ratings, he said.
There are trap games, though. They just might not be what you think. The perception is of a good team, say Philadelphia, laying a small number against New Orleans.
Using the highly-respected power ranking from The Gold Sheet, you’d find the Eagles with a power rating of 4 and the Saints at 8. When you factor the game being played in New Orleans, you could see why the line opened so short at less than a field goal.
For some, this makes it enticing to take the Eagles. That’s not a real trap game, though.
A real trap game, says professional gambler Dave Malinsky, is thinking you’re getting value betting a bad team, which brings us to the Oakland Raiders-Denver Broncos matchup.
The Raiders are +15 in this long-standing division rivalry. Denver is on a short week having dispatched Baltimore Monday. However, the Raiders haven’t covered the spread their last 10 games.
Many bettors don’t trust the Raiders to give a full effort. Few think much of Art Shell and his Oakland’s coaching staff.
So oddsmakers have to do something to make Oakland attractive if they hope to get equal action.
Now Malinsky is a value shopper. But he won’t touch the Raiders even getting more than two touchdowns.
“I try to eliminate the undisciplined, unfocused teams because they’re the ones most likely to suffer the bad beats,” he said.
Near the top of Malinsky’s list of stay-away teams is the Miami Dolphins, who have yet to cover a spread this season.
“Whatever you think of Nick Saban, you have to look at the penalties and turnovers,” Malinsky said.
It’s easy to point out the Dolphins failed to get the money this past week against New England because Olindo Mare missed a field goal and had another field goal blocked. But even though the Dolphins outgained the Patriots, 283-213, they committed eight penalties.
Bad teams not only cost themselves victories, but pointspread covers as well. The Arizona Cardinals and Green Bay Packers are two more examples.
The Cardinals couldn’t have been in a better position this past Sunday, up 14-0 at home against a mediocre Kansas City Chiefs squad. But they couldn’t hold it. The Packers got a push against St. Louis, but also could have won losing by three when Brett Favre fumbled at the St. Louis 11-yard line with 44 seconds left.
“The Packers were in a position to beat Philadelphia, too,” Malinsky said. “But they couldn’t even cover double digits.
“These teams just make mistakes and it costs you … they always will look good from a value standpoint. They really will. But that’s the trap.”
Houston and Tennessee rank among the six-worst teams. Malinsky wouldn’t be afraid to take either of these teams, however, if the price were high enough.
The Texans are bad, Malinsky said, but they have some discipline. The Titans showed they could not only come up with an outstanding game plan, but execute it as well, losing by one to the Colts on the road as an 18 ?-point underdog this past Sunday.
“Jeff Fisher is a worker,” Malinsky said of the Titans coach. “I’m not sure how hard Art Shell wants to work when he gets out of bed.”
Fisher, though, could be out as Tennessee coach after this season. Is he still worth backing in the right spot, with the right price, as a lame duck coach?
“It’s in his nature to keep working hard and not worry about any possible lame duck status,” Malinsky said. “He’s coaching for his resume.”
Note: Monday night game will be picked Monday. Lines used are from football betting lines.